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Posted by / 06-Dec-2020 13:01

Recession dating game

Bloomberg also has its own consumer comfort index published weekly.Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Businesses publishes a monthly survey showing sentiment among small firms.When businesses hire temporary workers, it could indicate that they’re not as confident about the future of the economy.Both of those measures have remained fairly consistent, though it edged down to the lowest level since Sept.During (what’s generally) the first Friday of each month, the Department of Labor publishes the broadest measure of the job market.

The day the monthly jobs report is released is often economists’ favorite day of the month.

On May 23, however, the spread inverted again, and it’s stayed that way since (though briefly reverting on July 23). The conflict officially started in July 2018, when 25 percent tariffs took effect on billion worth of goods. You see weak investment, you see weak manufacturing,” Powell said.

The two-year, 10-year curve, a spread that financial markets take even more seriously, inverted on Aug. But since then, it’s escalated, with 25 percent tariffs now in place on an additional 0 billion worth of products. “With trade tensions — which do seem to be having a significant effect on financial market conditions and on the economy — they evolve in a different way, and we have to follow them.” It’s worth following sentiment if you’re trying to predict what the economy will look like in the future, says Peter Donisanu, investment strategy analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. You build up so much pessimism about the economy that activity stops,” he says.

Seconds later, however, it looks like there could be trouble.

employers created new positions at a healthy pace in July, adding 164,000 workers while the unemployment rate held at a near half-century low.

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